The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 downward to 6.5%, from its earlier projection of 6.7%, citing rising trade uncertainty and the potential impact of higher U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and investment.

In its July 2025 edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), ADB noted that despite the slight downgrade, India continues to be among the fastest-growing major economies globally.

“This revision reflects the anticipated effects of baseline U.S. tariffs and growing policy uncertainty. Along with weaker global growth and direct implications of the new tariffs on Indian exports, the uncertain policy environment could dampen investment sentiment,” the report stated.