India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday revised India’s GDP growth projection for FY26 down to 6.3%, citing concerns over rising global trade uncertainties and a subdued investment climate. The revised estimate is 30 basis points lower than its earlier forecast of 6.6% made in December 2024.

In its mid-year economic outlook, Ind-Ra noted that the Indian economy is currently navigating a mix of headwinds and tailwinds. The primary challenges include an uncertain global environment triggered by unilateral tariff hikes by the U.S., and a weaker-than-expected investment outlook.

However, the agency also pointed to several supporting factors that could aid growth, including potential monetary easing, a faster-than-expected decline in inflation, and the likelihood of above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025.

Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head of Public Finance at Ind-Ra, highlighted these dynamics, emphasizing that while global conditions pose risks, domestic factors may help cushion the impact.